Research

Here are a few samples of our Independent India Equity Research reports. These are deep-value stocks (stocks picked by our analysts) and customized research as per clients’ requirements. We no longer provide investment advisory services.

 

Cupid Ltd   Buy Rs.46  Nov14                                Current Price

Cupid Ltd is a small but fast growing company in high-growth global prophylactics / contraceptive market. We believe its erratic performance is a thing of the past and the company has restructured itself well for a stable and growing performance. Rising comparative advantage of India over global competitors (China, Thailand, and Malaysia) is a tailwind for it.

 

Welspun India  Buy Rs.75  Feb13                                Current Price

Welspun India is the World’s largest home textile manufacturer. This largest home textile exporter recently turned-around post restructuring of its global and Indian operations. It is now set to show sustained improved performance. It sells its products under “Spaces” brand in India, ‘Christy’ brand in UK and is a supplier of white-label products to 14 of the top 30 global retailers like Wal-Mart, JC Penney and Macy’s.

 

 

Vaibhav Global         Buy Rs.104    Dec12           Current Price

Vaibhav Global Ltd (VGL) is a global electronic retailer of fashion jewellery, fashion accessories and lifestyle products with current presence mainly in USA & UK. After years of struggle, VGL zeroed on a right business model and turned around in FY11. It sells through its own TV shopping channels and internet shopping websites. VGL has just scratched the surface of the huge global electronic retail market.

 

 

Accelya Kale Solutions         Buy Rs.150    Sep12           Current Price

 

 

Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri  Buy Rs.120    Sep12           Current Price

A well-known brand for jewellery in Mumbai is now expanding rapidly all over India and de-risking its business from gold price volatility. A retail branded franchisee available at reasonable valuations.

 

Kaveri Seeds  Buy Rs.802 (Rs.160 x-split)  Aug-12          Current Price

A fast growing seeds company that has made a formidable market presence, available at reasonable valuation.

 

RS Software  Buy Rs.102    Jul-12           Current Price

A small software company focussed on a niche of electronic payments space, which offers immense opportunity to scale up.

 

Beginning of a new bull market – Buy small & mid caps   Nifty 5333     11-Mar-12

A confluence of multiple indicators (fundamental, empirical, technical & sentimental indicators) confirm that we are on the cusp of a new bull market. As large caps have outperformed mid & small caps since Dec-11 low, we expect mid & small-caps to play catch up and outperform large caps from now on.

 

Cera Sanitaryware    Buy Rs.215    Feb-12 Current Price

A strong brand consumer franchisee in sanitaryware available at attractive valuation.

 

NESCO Ltd     Buy Rs.592    Nov-11          Current Price

NESCO Ltd is in the business of realty. It licenses out office space and runs an exhibition-cum-convention centre on its 60-acre plus (over 2.6mn sqft) estate in Mumbai. It also manufactures surface preparation equipments. It’s in the process of doubling its leasable office space and has plans to double exhibition space and leasable office space further over the next few years.

 

Indag Rubber Buy Rs.140    Nov-11               Current Price

 

Indag Rubber is India’s 2nd largest producer of Tyre retreading materials, which are used for retreading worn-out tyres of trucks and buses. With a dominant organized sector player in an underpenetrated and asset-light business with multiple growth drivers, Indag is in a position to scale up significantly.

 

Nelcast Ltd              Buy Rs.20      Sep-2011       Current Price

Nelcast is India’s largest producer of SG Iron castings, which is used in Tractors, MHCVs, Railways, etc. It’s also a key player in Grey Iron Castings. Sales volume grew 30% annually over last two years and is expected to grow 20% annually over next three years. Margins will expand substantially due to operating leverage. Nelcast will also benefit from a couple of structural shifts towards greater use of castings.

 

ACC Ltd         Buy Rs.1029   Sep-2011       Current Price

Cement cycle near bottoming out. Capacity utilisation levels already stabilised. Rural housing growth continues. Trigger for uptrend in cement cycle may come from infrastructure spending push before multiple state elections in 2012 & 2013 and general elections in FY14. In cyclical stocks, it is better to bet on top quality companies.

 

Ambuja Cements      Buy Rs.132    Aug-2011       Current Price

Cement cycle near bottoming out. Capacity utilisation levels already stabilised. Commissioning of new capacity to add to volume growth of the company. Rural housing growth continues. Trigger for uptrend in cement cycle may come from infrastructure spending push before multiple state elections in 2012 & 2013 and general elections in FY14. In cyclical stocks, it is better to bet on top quality companies.

 

Bajaj Auto     Buy Rs.1455   Aug-2011       Current Price

2-Wheeler & 3-wheeler volume growth to continue despite high interest rates and slowing economy, Significant export growth to continue over long term, low valuation for a strong consumer franchise.

 

Hero MotoCorp         Buy Rs.1757   Jul-2011        Current Price

2-Wheeler volume growth to continue despite high interest rates and slowing economy, HMC’s entry into markets outside India to be a long-term growth driver, low valuation for a strong consumer franchise.

 

Ashiana Housing Ltd            Buy Rs.31      Jul-2011        Current Price

Consistent cash-flow generation throughout business cycle is a rarity in real estate development & construction sector. Ashiana is one such rarity. With real estate cycle turned up in FY11, Ashiana is our best stock pick from the sector. We expect strong cash-flow generation over the next three years. The immense potential in mid-income affordable housing makes it a long-term investment pick.

 

 

Mayur Uniquoters Ltd          Buy Rs.29      Sep-2010       Current Price

India’s largest manufacturer of artificial / synthetic leather, Mayur Uniquoters is growing rapidly, expanding capacity, integrating backward. After making marquee names like Bata, Maruti, Hero Honda as its customers, it has now set its sights on global auto majors like BMW, Mercedes, GM, Ford & Chrysler. A bet on domestic consumption growth and domestic & global automobile growth, at 5x current year earnings, is worth playing.

 

Symphony Ltd Buy Rs.80 Jun-2010           Current Price

This is the stock that we hinted at below when we mentioned a consumer durable company in Nov-09. Price then was Rs.101-127 (adj price 20-25). Symphony Ltd, world’s largest portable aircooler company, has been growing rapidly in a lowly-penetrated category on the back of domestic consumptions surge & expansion overseas. This is expected to continue as there is vast untapped potential. This ‘free cash flow positive’ company can go places with sagacious use/distribution of free cash.

 

Vinati Organics         Update          Rs.87  Jan-2010 Current Price

Vinati Organics has been a 3.5 bagger (248% appreciation) over last 6 months since our initiation report. In QE Dec09, revenues & PAT grew 16.5% and 61.5% respectively. Of the two key products, ATBS is on track and is likely to see significant pickup in sales now onwards. IBB, the other product, saw some impact of additional capacity commissioning during the quarter. Commissioning of backward integration project (Isobutylene) and pickup in ATBS sales are likely to lead to accelerated growth henceforth.

 

Compulink Systems   Buy Rs.4 (x-ca)        Dec 09  (It turned out to be a 6-bagger in a year taking into account all corporate actions)

A no-brainer mispriced opportunity that’s easily a two-bagger in a matter of a few months. A special situation pick.

 

A consumer durable company                  Buy     Nov 09 (The name was not disclosed then. This was Symphony Ltd picked up at Rs.19) Current Price

This consumer durable company is a multi multi-bagger. Not a cyclical uptick story but a structural long term growth story. Watch this space.

 

Sabero Organics Ltd Buy Rs.38      26 Aug 09

Sabero Organics is in the business of crop protection chemicals. It had revenues of Rs.377 crores & PAT of Rs.20 crores in FY09. It’s an integrated producer of fungicides, herbicides, insecticides. Largest producer of Mancozeb & Glyphosate in India, Sabero is the 2nd largest producer of Mancozeb globally and the only global producer of TEP, an intermediate. It recently expanded its production capacities considerably, obtained product registrations in key markets for key products and is expected to obtain more such registrations in the months ahead. The confluence of capacity expansions & product registrations put the company in a sweet spot.

 

Vinati Organics Ltd    Buy Rs.25 (x-ca)      14 Jul 09       Current Price

Vinati Organics is in the business of specialty organic chemicals & pharmaceutical intermediates and had revenues of over Rs.200 crores in FY09. It has global oligopoly in two products (IBB & ATBS) that contributes virtually the whole of its revenues and profits. It exports bulk of its production to US, Europe, and China. Focused on niche products with technological entry barriers, the company is currently running a pilot for another such product. We understand this product holds significantly greater potential than its existing products.

 

Gold to soon break-out of the range & resume LT uptrend (MCX Gold Rs.14592/10gm) 13 Jul 09

Gold is where money was rushing when all other investment assets worldwide were losing value during Nov08-Feb09. Gold rose 40% from 11500 to 16000 during this period. The sharp rise was followed by a correction from 16000 in mid-Feb09 to 14000 in mid-Apr09. Gold has since been in a narrow range of 14000-14900. We are of the view that Gold is likely to break-out of this three and a half months long range soon and resume its long term uptrend.

 

An End to INR/USD Bull Run INR: Now bet on a long bear run (INR 51.29/USD) 22 Nov 08 Target Rs.43/$ (Rs./$ reached 43.83 in Sep-11)

The mad scramble for USD from FIIs seems to be over post near vertical fall in stock indices in Oct-08. It’s early to call whether stock indices have witnessed selling climax leading to an end to the bear market. However, the weight of the technical evidence suggests that the Bull Run that began in INR/USD in Jan 2008 (from INR 39.28/USD) has run its course and has most probably ended at the high of INR 53.76/USD on 27 Oct 08. We expect INR/USD to go to 48 and then to 43.

 

Voltas Ltd      DCF Value (1-yr out) Rs.95  Apr-07

Voltas Ltd, post painful restructuring, is now capitalising on construction boom driven mainly by services sectors and tourism in India & Middle East. It is set to capitalise on strong growth opportunities in Electro-Mechanical engineering projects, engineering & capital equipments, and air-conditioning & refrigeration products. Besides strong growth in its businesses, other factors driving its earnings growth will be margin expansion, turn-around in cooling products business and further unlocking of value in real estate holdings.

 

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd       Buy Rs.4       Nov-06 (Stock price touched Rs.34 in Jan-08)

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd is in three related lines of business – bottling of LPG cylinders, manufacturing of gas cylinders, and marketing of LPG. All these business segments are expected to contribute significant growth and profits in FY07 & FY08. Besides, the company is working on a CNG cylinder manufacturing plant and this will be a significant growth driver from FY09 onwards. Revenues & PAT are likely to see exponential growth going forward.

 

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Budget update        Buy Rs.134 x-ca Feb-06 (stock continues to be a secular gainer)

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd         Buy Rs.118x-ca Feb-06

NESCO Ltd    Update Rs.334 x-ca   Jan-06  (stock price touched Rs.1292 in Nov-07)

NESCO Ltd     Buy Rs.189 x-ca       Dec-05

NESCO Ltd, a company with trailing adjusted net profit of Rs.129mn, is in the business of realty. It licenses out office space and runs an exhibition-cum-convention centre on its 65-acre (2.83mn sq. ft.) estate in Mumbai. It also manufactures surface preparation & forging equipments. All its business segments are witnessing rising business. It’s expanding in both the segments of realty, getting into catering (a related diversification), and also forward integrating into organising exhibitions & trade fairs.

 

Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd    Buy Rs.73    Dec-05 (Stock reached Rs.458 in Dec-07)

Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd (PESL), a Hyderabad-based construction & hospitality company with trailing net profit of Rs.123mn, is rapidly expanding both constructions and hospitality businesses to cater to buoyant market in these businesses. It’s launching a number of housing projects in FY07, about half of which will have 100% income tax deduction. It will also construct a 3-star hotel, a 5-star hotel, and a golf course in FY06-FY07 and these will contribute to revenues & profits from FY08 onwards.

 

 

Nava Bharat Ferro Alloys Ltd     Update    Dec-04

Aro Granite Industries Ltd    Buy Rs.48    Nov-04

Gujarat NRE Coke Ltd    Buy Rs.8.25 x-ca    Sep-04

Tata Metaliks Ltd    Buy Rs.105    Aug-04

Torrent Cables Ltd     Buy Rs.60    Apr-04

Mercator Lines    Update    Apr-04

Phillips Carbon Black    Update    Feb-04

Mercator Lines    Update    Jan-04

Mercator Lines Ltd    Buy Rs.158 (Rs.6.32 XS XB)   Oct-03

Ester Industries     Update    Oct-03

Phillips Carbon Black Ltd    Buy Rs.44    Sep-03

Ester Industries Ltd    Buy Rs.15     Sep-03

Lupin Ltd    Buy Rs.20 x-ca    May-03

Heritage Foods Ltd     Buy Rs.48    May-03    Part-I     Part II    Part III

Previous Multibagger Ideas: Lupin Ltd, Matrix Laboratories, ONGC, Jindal Steel & Power, Godrej Soaps (Now Godrej Consumer), Aurobindo Pharma, UTI Bank (now Axis Bank), Geometric, J&K Bank, Wockhardt Ltd.

x-ca = adjusted for corporate actions like bonus, splits, rights, etc.

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